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AdvertisementIt could be all about recessionsSince the 1950s, whenever the US economy fell into a recession, the rate of working men tended to suffer a lasting blow. AdvertisementWhy have recessions appeared to have such a lasting impact on working men? The strong recovery of men working after the pandemic recession could be due to the unique nature of this downturn — which tanked an otherwise healthy economy. And of course, some lucky prime-age men aren't working because they've had a lot of financial success — and already retired. Deciphering how much these explanations have fueled the decline of working men could be worthy of further explanation, the economists said.
Persons: , It's, Abigail Wozniak, Wozniak, David Autor, There's, Jason Furman, Barack Obama's, Elise Gould, Gould, aren't, we've, John M, Coglianese, they've Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Washington Post, of Labor Statistics, San Francisco Fed, BLS, Economic, Economic Policy Institute, Federal Reserve
David Autor seems an unlikely A.I. But Mr. Autor is now making the case that the new wave of technology — generative artificial intelligence, which can produce hyper-realistic images and video and convincingly imitate humans’ voices and writing — could reverse that trend. Mr. Autor’s stance on A.I. Modern A.I., Mr. Autor said, is a fundamentally different technology, opening the door to new possibilities. And if more people, including those without college degrees, can do more valuable work, they should be paid more, lifting more workers into the middle class.
Persons: David Autor, Autor, A.I, Mr Organizations: Massachusetts Institute of Technology, National Bureau of Economic Research, Mr
The ATM was supposed to wipe out bank tellers. And yet, here we are in 2023, with unemployment in the US at 3.8%, and an estimated 9.6 million jobs available. Tech typically creates more jobs overallSimply put, technology creates more jobs than it takes away. For example, there were fears that the advent of ATMs would put bank tellers out of work. And sure enough, a few years after the adoption of the ATM, there were fewer bank tellers per branch.
Persons: , Morgan Stanley, David Autor, who's, Banks, James Bessen, Here's Morgan Stanley, Uber, Carl Benedikt Frey, Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson Organizations: Service, Tech, Microsoft, Microsoft Excel, National Association of Economic Research, London, Oxford Martin School Locations: London, Hollywood
Over the course of three conversations this summer, Acemoglu told me he's worried we're currently hurtling down a road that will end in catastrophe. "There's a fair likelihood that if we don't do a course correction, we're going to have a truly two-tier system," Acemoglu told me. "I was following the canon of economic models, and in all of these models, technological change is the main mover of GDP per capita and wages," Acemoglu told me. In later empirical work, Acemoglu and Restrepo showed that that was exactly what had happened. "I realize this is a very, very tall order," Acemoglu told me.
Persons: who's, Katya Klinova, Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson, Acemoglu, Johnson, we've, he's, we're, Power, James Robinson, , Robinson, David Autor, Pascual Restrepo, Restrepo, John Maynard Keynes, Simon Simard, Lord Byron, Eric Van Den Brulle, hasn't, it's, Gita Gopinath, Paul Romer, Romer, What's, Daron, GPT, Asu Ozdaglar, It's, Mark Madeo, Tattong, Erik Brynjolfsson, Brynjolfsson, There's, Yoshua Bengio, Yuval Noah Harari, Andrew Yang, Elon Musk, I've, That's, Aki Ito Organizations: Getty, MIT, of Technology, Hulton, London School of Economics, Stagecoach, Technology, , International Monetary Fund, Microsoft, Asu, Companies, Computer, Greenpeace, Communications, Big Tech, Workers Locations: Silicon Valley, America, Boston, Istanbul, Turkey, Acemoglu, England, United States, Britain, Australia
We didn't see the internet coming, but AI is within viewThe adoption of groundbreaking technology is often hard to predict. The World Economic Forum estimated 83 million jobs worldwide would be lost over the next five years because of AI, with 69 million jobs created — that leaves 14 million jobs that will cease to exist during that timeframe. In the US, the knowledge-worker class is estimated to be nearly 100 million workers, one out of three Americans. The small and large compounding effects of productivity growth across many industries are central to the growth trajectory and the long-run effects of AI. This is an alarmingly trivial amount for an economy of $25 trillion GDP and over 150 million workers.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Joseph Schumpeter, Bill Gates, David Letterman, Paul Krugman, Erik Brynjolfsson, , Brynjolfsson, Robert Solow, Robert Gordon, provocatively, It's, Gordon, David Autor, Maria Flynn, Flynn, , Georgia –, Emil Skandul, Tony Blair Organizations: McKinsey, Newsweek, Stanford University, Microsoft, Amazon, Cisco, Economic, International Labor Organization, Organization for Economic Co, Development, MIT, Congressional, Office, Department of Labor, Tony Blair Institute Locations: Washington, Singapore, New York, Georgia
Income inequality has narrowed in the US, with low-wage workers receiving raises during the pandemic. This trend has been tapering off, though labor market competition has benefited wage growth. This was thanks to pre-pandemic minimum wage legislation, coupled with higher raises for lower wage workers in the tumultuous years that followed. Although low-wage workers have slightly narrowed the gap, corporate profits have boomed, allowing those at the very top to stay separated from the rest. In June 2022, low-wage workers saw 7.2% wage growth from the prior year, falling to 6.5% in June 2023.
Persons: It's, David Autor, Ford, Autor, Harry Holzer, John LaFarge Jr, SJ, Georgetown University's, Holzer, Biden, " Holzer Organizations: Service, National Bureau of Economic Research, Federal Reserve Bank, Dallas, MIT Department of Economics, American Bar Association, Public, Georgetown, Georgetown University's McCourt School of Public, Federal Reserve Bank of, Economic Policy Institute Locations: Wall, Silicon, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Businesses are expected to use AI to boost productivity and their profits. The adoption of AI could mean higher wages for workers — or that they lose their jobs altogether. In the years ahead, generative AI including ChatGPT could disrupt — not necessarily replace — 300 million full-time jobs across the globe, according to Goldman Sachs. Over the next decade, that AI productivity boost could increase S&P 500 profits by 30% or more, Ben Snider, a senior strategist at Goldman Sachs, told CNBC last week. "AI will make superstar companies more productive and profitable, but those profits might be achieved at the expense of other companies," he said.
Brynjolfsson and his co-authors of a study compared the call center employees who used the tool to those who didn’t. Customer sentiment was also higher and employee turnover lower in the group that used the tool. “That offers an opportunity to enable more workers to do valuable work that relies on some of that expertise,” he said. tool for some tasks may free up workers to expand their work on tasks that can’t be automated. Of course, there’s no guarantee that workers will be qualified for new jobs, or that they’ll be good jobs.
In midsized metros Metros with 250,000 to one million residents. An Emerging Divide Mobility has risen for college-educated workers, even as it has fallen for workers without a degree. College-educated workers leaving the most expensive parts of the country are also not spreading out equally everywhere — or even going to parts of the country that are struggling. Net migration among college graduates Loss Gain Among the 12 most expensive metros, net college migration has generally declined or turned negative. “Consumer cities,” as she puts it, are increasingly replacing “producer cities” as the places where college graduates want to live.
Labor economist David Autor told NPR he believes AI could revitalize the middle class. "The good scenario is one where AI makes elite expertise cheaper and more accessible," Autor told NPR. "First of all, we live in the physical world, which most machines do not," Autor told NPR. "In my mind, I actually think the irony is that the labor market is the least scary part of this at the moment," Autor told NPR. Autor also said, in a worst-case scenario, "we use AI to kill each other" — echoing similar warnings from other researchers.
Artificial intelligence could cheapen educated labor and reduce inequality. "The general presumption is that AI — and even before that, office software — would impact middle-skill workers," Acemoglu told Insider. That word "exposure" means AI could either replace high-income workers, which would reduce inequality, or make them even more productive, which would increase it. "You can imagine devolving some of the most highly skilled tasks to less skilled people," Autor said. Additionally, "the more skilled workers may be able to shield themselves," he said.
Low-Wage Workers Climb the Earnings Ladder
  + stars: | 2023-03-06 | by ( Justin Lahart | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: +1 min
Competition for low-wage workers will become more intense, a new paper says. With the broad job losses the pandemic set off concentrated in low-wage industries, the earnings gap between the rich and the poor seemed likely to only widen. It has narrowed instead, with wage growth among lower-paid and less-educated workers outstripping wage growth among the better-paid and more highly educated. Their findings suggest that even as the pandemic fades, competition for low-wage workers will be more intense than before the pandemic. That could lead to further reductions in income inequality, raise labor costs at firms that employ low-wage workers, and reshape the U.S. business landscape.
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